Current understanding of how climate change affects seabirds varies between regions and species in the North-East Atlantic

Seabirds are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, with previous research by BTO projecting significant declines over the coming decades. Seabird populations respond to climate change through changes
in abundance, breeding productivity, survival rates, and phenology. However, while the impacts of climate change on certain species and regions are well-studied, the majority of species and sites remain understudied. This may may limit our understanding of the mechanisms linking climate change to seabird population change, which is vital for identifying which species are at particular risk and formulating conservation responses.

In this paper, the authors reviewed the scientific literature from 1970 to 2022 for the 25 seabird species that breed in the UK and the Republic of Ireland. The search was focused on the North-East Atlantic region. The findings revealed significant gaps, in that only six seabird species have been the focus of more than 10 applicable studies, and a mere three (Kittiwake, Guillemot and Shag) have been the subject of more than 20 applicable studies. Furthermore, the majority of studies were conducted in the North Sea (particularly on the Isle of May), which may not be representative of oceanic conditions or those of other regional seas.

Of the drivers of population change, breeding productivity was the most monitored demographic rate across seabird species. This focus may lead to important mechanisms that affect other demographic rates, such as survival, being overlooked, compounding any biases in understanding introduced by the focus on particular species and locations.

Nevertheless, the literature does consistently highlight the importance of both climate impacts cascading through the food chain and severe storm events affecting seabirds, causing starvation and wrecks. In response, conservation action should prioritise the sustainable management of fish stocks near breeding colonies, and coastal management to protect vulnerable colonies from storm events.

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